The House is on Fire, Again: Why Special Elections Matter

If you thought Congress was dysfunctional before, wait until you see what happens when a handful of special elections could increase or narrow the Republican majority or even flip control of the House. 2025 isn’t a normal political off-year. It’s a high-stakes game of power and federal employees are smack in the middle of it!

Special elections are taking place this fall in Arizona, Virginia, Texas and Tennessee…and maybe New Jersey.
 

Why NTEU Members Should Care & Pay Attention

The House majority is currently hanging by a thread, and every seat could tip the balance of Congress and impact the Administration’s ability to move forward with his anti-government, anti-worker agenda. Here’s what’s at stake:

• Agency funding: More shutdown threats if the GOP holds or expands its majority.

• Pay raises: On the chopping block.

• Union rights: Expect more anti-union bills if the House stays red.

• Oversight: A Democratic flip could lead to committee investigations and actual accountability for the Administration.
   

Special Election Breakdown: Who’s In, Who’s Leading, and Who’s Got a Shot

Virginia’s 11th (Election: Sept. 9, 2025)

After Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) passed away, this deep-blue Northern Virginia seat is up for grabs. There are over 10 candidates running for the seat!

Top Contenders:

• James Walkinshaw (D): Former Connolly Chief of Staff, backed by local Dem heavyweights.

• Stella Pekarsky (D): State Senator with strong progressive support.

Polling: Walkinshaw leads the Democratic field with 28%, followed by Pekarsky at 24%. GOP candidates trail significantly in this historically Democratic district.

Arizona’s 7th (Primary: July 15 | General: Sept. 23, 2025)

Following the death of progressive icon Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D), this Tucson-based seat is a progressive battleground.

Top Contenders (Dem Primary):

• Adelita Grijalva: Pima County Supervisor and daughter of the late congressman.

• Daniel Hernández Jr.: Former State Representative and Gabby Giffords staffer

Polling: Adelita Grijalva leads with 35%, Hernández at 27%. Republican candidates are noncompetitive in this deep blue district and whoever wins the primary will likely win the seat.

Texas’ 18th (Election: Nov. 4, 2025)

After Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away, Houston’s 18th is heating up.

Top Contenders (Dem Primary):

• Amanda Edwards (D): Former Houston City Council member and 2020 Senate candidate.

• Christian Menefee (D): Harris County Attorney with strong union backing.

Polling: Edwards leads with 31%, Menefee close behind at 29%. No serious GOP contenders in this very blue district.

Tennessee’s 7th (Date TBD)

Rep. Mark Green (R) is stepping down (again), and this very red district is gearing up for a GOP primary fight.

Top Contenders (Expected General Election)

• Brandon Ogles (R): Former state rep with close ties to the Trump administration.

• Megan Barry (D): Former Nashville mayor, running again despite the odds

Polling: Ogles leads the GOP field with 34%, Barry trails in the general election by double digits in this deep-red district.

New Jersey’s 11th (TBD)

Now that Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won her primary for Governor, this seat could be in play. If she wins the governorship in the general election, her congressional seat might flip from Blue to Red if a special election is called in this very competitive district!
 

Governors: Rigging the Election Calendar?

Governors set the dates for special elections, and they know exactly what they’re doing. Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin chose a quiet September date, two months before the general state elections, almost guaranteed to produce low turnout. And Texas’ Greg Abbott dragged out the calendar to keep this very blue seat vacant as long as possible. These are not coincidences. They are turnout traps, voter suppression tactics, and partisan games.
 

Bottom Line: Could the House Flip?

Yes, but barely. If Democrats sweep VA-11, AZ-7, TX-18, NJ-11 and somehow make TN-7 competitive (unlikely, but hey, it’s 2025), the House could go flip or at least to gridlock. And for federal employees, gridlock is better than the destruction that is happening now.   Special elections seem annoying but this year they are surprisingly consequential not just for our livelihood but for union rights. Don’t sit this one out. Your paycheck, your rights, and your agency’s future might just depend on it.
 

What Can You Do?

• Check your voter registration: Go to Vote.org to check your voter registration status.

• If you live in these districts, get out to vote in these special elections.

• Tell your coworkers, your neighbors, your friends and family to vote. These races will have low turnout, so your vote can have a high impact.

• Give to TEPAC to help make sure pro-federal employee candidates are elected.